What are Gemini Predictions?

Gemini Predictions allow users to trade event contracts. Event contracts are simple yes or no agreements tied to specific, measurable outcomes based on real-world events. In essence, users are trading on their guess as to whether a clearly defined event will or will not happen.

What determines the outcome of an event contract?

The outcome of an event contract is determined by whether the predicted event happens. If the user’s predicted event occurs, the user is paid a fixed $1.00; if it does not occur, the user receives no payment. Event contracts always trade between $0 and $1.

For example: “Will Bitcoin be above $200,000 by 2026?” If a user buys a “Yes” contract for $0.40 and Bitcoin is above $200,000 by the deadline, they receive $1.00; if not, they receive $0. Likewise, if a user buys a “No” contract for $0.65 and Bitcoin is not above $200,000 by 2026, they receive $1.00; otherwise, the payout is $0.

What determines the outcome of an event?

The source of the event outcome is based on a third-party data agency. Users can see the source in the Event Asset Details page.

What if an event outcome is delayed, disputed, or unclear?

If an event’s result is delayed, disputed, or cannot be clearly verified at the scheduled time due to third-party data, Gemini will postpone resolving the contract until reliable and authoritative information becomes available. The contract will remain unresolved until the outcome can be confidently confirmed in accordance with the Gemini Titan Rulebook, in Gemini’s sole discretion.

How are prediction markets different from other traditional assets?

Event contracts are tied to clearly definable, real-world events.

Who can trade Gemini Predictions?

Gemini Predictions is available to US users only.

When can I trade?

Event contract trading is available 24/7.

Which account types are able to trade predictions?

Spot accounts are able to trade predictions.

What order types are available?

All orders are based on a limit-price order.

Which currencies can I use to trade?

Users may trade via their USD balance held on the Gemini platform.

What determines the event contract prices?

Event contract prices on Gemini are set by the market itself. Buyers place bids and sellers place asks, and whenever those prices match, a trade is made—establishing the current market price. As new information comes in and traders adjust their expectations, bids and asks shift, causing prices to update continuously.

What’s the difference between event closing and event resolution?

Event closing is the moment when trading stops—you can no longer buy, sell, or adjust your position after the event reaches its close time.

Event resolution happens later, when the real-world outcome is announced by the source and the market is officially settled as YES or NO. In other words, closing ends trading, while resolution determines the final result and payouts.

Can I cash out or adjust my position before the event resolves?

Yes. You can buy or sell (cash out) contracts up until the event’s close time, subject to a variety of factors including market factors, business conditions, or applicable law and regulations.

Closing your event early locks in profit or loss based on the current price.

How will Gemini Predictions be regulated?

Gemini Predictions are operated as a federally regulated exchange and approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

What fees will I pay?

For the most updated fee structure, please refer to: gemini.com/fees/titan.

Can I buy more after my initial purchase?

Yes. You can add more event contracts to an existing position at any time as long as it’s before the event close time.

How do I exit an event contract?

You can do this in one of two ways

• Sell your contracts on the market to cash out early based on current price.
• Wait for resolution—if your outcome wins, your payout is automatically added to your account.

Where can I see my prediction payouts?

You can find what you predicted and your payouts in your Transaction History.

What are the tax implications of trading prediction events?

Gemini does not provide tax or accounting advice. Please consult your own tax advisor regarding your specific circumstances.

Does Gemini offer any referral rewards for trading predictions?

At this time, prediction trades do not qualify for any referral rewards or bonuses.